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China’s GDP growth next year is expected to be stable at 6.3 percent, despite headwinds, according to the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, and economists suggested that the country should continue to press ahead with structural reforms to boost growth.
Despite the global economic downturn and Sino-US trade conflicts, China’s GDP growth rate may reach 6.6 percent this year — meaning it would achieve its preset growth target of around 6.5 percent — and then in 2019 ease to 6.3 percent, according to the academy’s latest forecast, released in a blue book report on the economy on Monday.
China is not expected to encounter any economic hard-landing, economists said at a forum organized by the top think tank on Monday.
“The active promotion of a new round of reforms and opening-up as well as the Belt and Road Initiative will further stimulate internal and external demand next year,” said Lou Feng, the co-author of the report and a researcher at the Institute of Quantitative & Technological Economics at the academy. “China’s low unemployment rate and consumer inflation level will also play a key role in guaranteeing social stabilization and residential income growth.”
The academy’s report, usually published at year’s end to forecast the economy’s performance in the following year, said China’s fixed-asset investment will remain stable next year as China will continue to use investments to prevent an economic downturn.
Policymakers at the Central Economic Work Conference, which concluded on Friday, said the country will strengthen use of fiscal policy and increase infrastructure investments to shore up the economy. It will also promote urbanization and development of regional economic clusters, such as the Yangtze River Delta region, to create more demand for investment.
Consumption also is expected to remain stable, the academy’s report said. The country has devised a series of policies such as personal tax cuts to encourage consumption, which will work to help increase retail sales, it said.
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